This commentary covers the key takeaways for the listed commodities. Click the (x) next to the sectors to see the respective monthly charts pack.

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Past performance is not a guide to future performance.

Nuclear Energy & Uranium (x)
U.S. Fuel-Security Push; Asia Restarts Edge Forward

The US’s DoE fast-tracked 11 advanced SMR test reactor projects, and set a goal to get 3 to the first criticality stage within 1 year.¹ Initial awardees include Oklo (2 projects) and Atomic Alcemy (Oklo Subsidiary).² US domestic uranium supply dominated moves in the broader uranium market, with the U.S. signing a DOE lease enabling a new enrichment facility at Paducah (Kentucky), while South Africa upheld environmental authorisation for a 4-GW new build at Duynefontein – both reinforcing a potential global shift toward domestic and diversified fuel chains.^3,4

On the demand side, momentum in nuclear powerplant restarts gained as Japan’s regulator concluded that Tomari-3 meets safety requirements, and the power backdrop is turning more nuclear-friendly as PJM’s (US’s biggest nuclear power transmitter) capacity prices and demand projections rose on data-centre load growth.^5,6

The long-term uranium price finished July at $82/lb, with spot around $71.5–72/lb in early August, underscoring a term-led market where utilities continue to prioritise security of supply and tenor over near-term delivery.⁷ The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust resumed spot purchases, an incremental tailwind to the floor in spot prices.⁸

Base Metals and Copper (x)
Copper Tariffs Change Course and China on Track for Record Copper Production

The July tariff shock largely reversed in early August after refined copper was spared from the 50% US tariff, prompting traders to unwind the physical arbitrage and rotate metal back to LME warehouses.^9,10 US futures prices dropped 22% in one day and global benchmarks edged up.¹¹ Concurrently, smelter margins remain under pressure—spot refining charges stayed depressed enough that Mitsubishi Materials signalled potential scale-backs—keeping the smelting leg tight even as the immediate tariff premium faded.¹²

Looking ahead, concentrate scarcity and strong refined output from China will likely lead markets: despite scarce unrefined supply, China is still on track for record refined production in 2025.¹³ Policy support for Western processing capacity also featured this month, with Australia’s A$135m package for Trafigura’s Nyrstar (lead/zinc) underscoring governments’ willingness to backstop smelting.¹⁴

Gold (x) & Silver (x)
Gold Tariff Confusion Relieved, and Silver’s Demand Outlook Strengthens

Gold’s early-August spike reversed after the White House clarified that imports of gold bars will not face tariffs, shifting attention back to U.S. inflation data and rate-cut odds.¹⁵ That combination saw prices ease as the tariff premium unwound, with the market shifting focus to the real rates outlook on the back of the August CPI print.¹⁶ Gold ETF inflows increased in July, led by US and Europe, while the PBoC extended its buying streak into July – both factors helping to support the medium-term tone, combined with a notable decrease in the US 10-year real interest rate.^17,18

Silver’s investment bid remained firm into July, underpinned by industrial demand (electronics/PV) and ETP inflows that already exceeded 2024’s total by mid-year; media and sell-side commentary continue to flag silver’s dual-use dynamics and tightening balances.¹⁹

Oil (x) and Gas (x)
Oil Looks to Head into Oversupply, while Gas Prices Remain Supressed

Oil traded heavy into early August as OPEC+ approved another large September output increase, adding to the accelerated unwind of prior cuts.²⁰ Meanwhile, the IEA now projects a record surplus next year as demand growth slows and inventories build, theoretically leading to oversupplied markets.²¹ Near-term price action reflected this mix of supply adds and softer demand signals, with OPEC output rising in July led by the UAE and Saudi Arabia and U.S. stock data into mid-August showing a mixed picture ahead of official EIA figures.²²

The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska ended without a ceasefire or concrete deal on Ukraine, but was presented as constructive by both.²³ This reduced the risk premium on both oil and gas and led to a bearish outlook on top of a weak fundamental backdrop.²⁴

In gas markets, EU ministers formally extended and made more flexible the gas-storage framework to 2027, a move aimed at tempering seasonal squeezes and reducing the need to over-buy at any single point in the fill cycle.²⁵ Henry Hub gas dipped as cooler-than-expected weather trimmed power demand, while strong supply and comfortable storage kept the market well supplied.²⁶

Critical Minerals, Battery Tech & Lithium (x)
Lithium Supply Gets a Shock, while US Makes Moves in Domestic Rare-Earths Supply Chain

Lithium prices rose into early August on China supply headlines: CATL (4% of total supply) suspended operations at its Jiangxi lepidolite mine pending licence renewal, and followed a mid-July governmental order for Zangge Mining to halt output.²⁷ This comes as the lithium market is structurally oversupplied, causing nearly half of global production to be unprofitable.²⁸

In rare earths, the DoD agreed a 10-year price floor for NdPr with MP Materials (the US’s only rare earths mining company), which will essentially act as a backstop for when market prices decrease below the $110/kg mark.²⁹ This is part of an effort to secure US supply of rare earths and reduce foreign reliance.³⁰