Commodities Tracker - September Edition

Global X’s monthly Commodities Tracker is your essential guide to the latest trends and developments shaping global commodities.

Key takeaways:

• Nuclear Energy & Uranium: Elevated long-term uranium prices could provide a stronger foundation for producer contracting and investment in new supply. Utilities’ efforts to replace consumed volumes could sustain procurement momentum, while broader access to green finance could support reactor development and life extensions, reinforcing longer-term fuel demand.

• Copper: Tariff-driven tightness outside the US and faster Chinese fiscal spending could support copper prices and miners’ earnings. Copper’s emergence as BHP’s largest earnings contributor highlights its growing strategic importance. Policy support in Chile and Zambia could also facilitate longer-term production growth, subject to financing and successful project execution.

• Gold and Silver: The Treasury’s expansion of long-dated bond buybacks could keep concerns over debt-market liquidity in focus, supporting gold and silver amid fiscal uncertainty. Sustained strength in metal prices could benefit miners’ earnings, with persistent inflation and the prospect of further Fed tightening remaining key risks to the rally.

• Critical Minerals, Battery Tech & Lithium: The US Department of Energy’s grants are advancing investment across lithium, cobalt, processing and recycling. This funding could help diversify supply chains, with financing difficulties in African rare-earth projects highlighting the importance of attracting private capital and establishing commercially viable alternatives to Chinese supply.

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Chart of the month

The record high in long-term uranium prices signals a structural improvement in the contracting backdrop. Stability at elevated levels provides a stronger foundation for future term contracting, reinforces producer pricing power and supports the economics needed to invest in new supply, as utilities increasingly prioritise long-term inventory security.

This document is not intended to be, or does not constitute, investment research as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority.